Every day micro information! Passenger Association: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in April is expected to be 500,000 units, down 8.4% month-on-month

Under the interference of multiple adverse factors such as the epidemic, the car market performed poorly in the first quarter, showing a weak recovery trend month by month. In March, the narrow passenger car retail sales of the Federation completed 1.591 million units, up 0.5% year-on-year and 14.8% month-on-month, in line with the previous forecast. Among them, 546,000 new energy units, 22.6% year-on-year and 24.3% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 34.3% and a recovery rate slightly faster than the overall market. In the first quarter, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles completed 4.265 million units, year-on-year -13.4%.

The car market stabilized

In April, the heat of price war gradually subsided, consumers resumed rational consumption, wait-and-see mood was relieved, the pent-up demand was released to some extent, and the overall auto market continued the trend at the end of March, stabilizing and repairing.

1. Sales trends of manufacturers

According to the survey, accounting for about 80% of the overall market manufacturers' retail target slightly decreased compared to the previous month, affected by the low base last year, increased by about 50% year-on-year, preliminary calculation of this month's narrow passenger car retail market in about 1,570 million units, month-on-month -1.3%, year-on-year growth of 49.8%, new energy affected by export seasonal fluctuations, Retail sales of about 50.0 million units, month-on-month -8.4%, penetration rate of about 31.8%.

Two, cycle trend calculation

The average daily retail sales of major manufacturers in the first and second weeks were 31,500 and 36,700 respectively, 8% and 23% on a month-on-month basis. In the third week, the average daily retail sales are expected to be 54,800, 26% on a month-on-month basis, basically unchanged with the trend of the second week. Considering the end-of-the-quarter impulse behavior of manufacturers in the last week of March, based on the seasonal performance of previous years, the market is expected to be -14% month-on-month in the fourth week, and the comprehensive estimate is that April retail sales will reach 1.57 million units.

The car market recovered modestly in March and April

China's GDP grew by 4.5% in the first quarter, higher than expected. The economy recovered after the epidemic and market expectations have improved. The value added of the service sector grew by 3.0% year on year, 3.1% faster than the fourth quarter of last year. Total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter grew by 5.8% year on year, but automobiles were -2.3% year on year. The economic recovery is mainly driven by offline service industries such as tourism and catering, which were inhibited in the early stage. It still takes some time for the economic recovery to translate into the consumption of big-ticket goods. At the end of March, a large number of local incentive policies expired, and in April, there was less incentive at the level of local policies. It is expected that no strong incentive policies will be added in a short time, mildly supporting the auto market. The heat of price war in the whole market has subsided, the situation of holding money to wait and see has gradually eased, and the pent-up consumer demand has also been released, which is conducive to the stabilization of the auto market. The Shanghai Auto Show was held as scheduled in mid-to-late April, raising the attention of the auto market and helping the overall auto market recover moderately. According to the survey results of China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers at the end of March was 1.78, down 7.8% from the previous month. Terminal inventory was still at a high level, but destocking was progressing steadily.

To sum up, the narrow retail sales of passenger vehicles in April is estimated to be 1.57 million units, month-on-month -1.3%, affected by the low base in the same period, a year-on-year growth of 49.8%; Among them, the retail sales volume of new energy is expected to be 50.0 million, with a month-on-month growth of -8.4% and penetration rate of 31.8%.

(Article source: Chinese Passenger Union)